Economy & Development
Global Economic Tremors
Manu
Nursing the financial wounds inflicted by the ravaging meltdown, the world economy is now experiencing jitters. Similar to aftershocks post an earthquake, the economic tremors are continuing to shake the global financial system. Gone are the days of Western hegemony on the world economy. The days of so-called power shift to the emerging nations, read mainly India and China, are happening. Whether it’s the ways of the Americans or the Europeans, the financial meltdown has brought down the once-invincible citadels of economic influence. Right from the power-corridors of the Wall Street to the cool environs of the Europe to the oil-rich deserts of the Middle East, the financial turmoil continues to cast an over reaching shadow. Of course, the crisis, with its origin in the US subprime crisis, did not spare any of the countries. Only that, the fallout has been less severe or rather very mild in many emerging Asian nations. When the Western world splurged themselves on exotic financial instruments and excessive risk taking activities, a few nations like India decided to keep away from new and unknown ways for amassing wealth. In the case of China, the economic growth has been phenomenal to say the least.
More than a year after financial tsunami triggered unprecedented crisis in all imaginable sectors, the global economy is groping for a strong foothold despite increasing positive sentiments. Currently, the lexicon of economics is not so flooded with words like contraction, negative growth and massive layoffs. And it is sprinkled with words like expansion, growth and hiring.
Nonetheless, the wariness accompanying all the optimism on economic revival and improving financial situation cannot be missed. The huge stimulus measures -- which saw billions of dollars being pumped into the system – surely, induced a fresh lease of life to ailing and slowing economies. But the ultimate recovery, a pre-crisis scenario, remains a distant dream. The solace is that 2010 is and will be much better than 2009 and 2008.
The silver linings amid impending gloom always usher in a sense of hope. Yes, majority of the global economies are out of recession – generally defined as two straight quarters of negative growth. The US is expanding at a good pace, so are Japan, Germany and France, to name a few. The rattled labour market is slowly stabilising if not completely recovering. Even though new jobs are happening at a snail’s pace, the reason to smile is that not many jobs are vanishing, as had been the trend last year.
Above all, the emerging global economic hierarchy has become more inclusive than ever before. And the glowing illustration is the growing prominence of G-20 nations that includes the US, India, Japan and Germany, to name a few.
But the crisis that pushed the global economy into the brink was beyond the grasp of policymakers and belligerent administrations. Coming to terms with the enormity of the turmoil and responding with necessary tools has always been a challenge for the economic architects. Even after unleashing most of their political, financial and monetary weapons, the aftershocks of the turmoil remain scary.
Amid discussions on charting a path for a proper exit from stimulus measures, many countries are at cross roads in deciding on a suitable strategy. For, the euro zone members – a grouping of 16 countries that share the common currency – are grappling with the debt burden of Greece and Portugal. The problems even pose a threat for the future of euro currency. And in the oil rich Arabian region, the Dubai debt crisis persists.
Yet, the glow of economic revival is bright enough to dispel the lingering economic gloom.